Here an attempt is made to put forward the 'facts' of global warming using a number of sources and words of others - see the references given in the earlier posting below.
(In any good science there are no such things as 'facts', otherwise new theories would not evolve as we understand the world more clearly. What we accept as facts are only high probabilities, eg the sun rising in the morning, the apple falling to the ground. This 'doubt' should not be used as an excuse to ignore them. In this case if the Met Office is issuing the warning you could justly be considered ignorant to ignore their predictions unless you are more knowledgeable than they. It is nevertheless difficult to face up to unpleasant facts - we use every ruse to avoid facing unpleasant facts and there are powerful commercial interests who wish to promote our doubt.)
Here are the 'established facts'. Feel free to find fault with them, and it would be hoped that this is because you have found some added information to share with us!
Then if convinced - doing something about it would be the logical result!
A major reason for Global Warming is the so-called "carbon cycle effect". Plants, soils and oceans currently absorb only about half of the carbon dioxide emitted by humankind's activities.
While this occurs, Carbon Dioxide concentration is rising continuously. It is one of several ‘Greenhouse Gases’.
Greenhouse gases absorb thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere itself, and by clouds; and then re-radiate thermal infrared in all directions, including down to the Earth’s surface. The heat does not escape. The temperature rises.
As temperatures increase, the absorption of greenhouse gases by the plants, soils and oceans decreases.
For example, plant matter in the soil breaks down more quickly at higher temperatures, releasing carbon more quickly, and amplifying the warming trend.
With the temperature rise, the ice in the polar regions melts revealing soil which, because it is not white, absorbs heat from the sun more efficiently. Thus the temperature rises even quicker.
Methane released from the thawing of permafrost will add to the warming. This methane release is currently not included in the calculations, and becomes more of a risk for larger temperature rises.
Hence, the risks of dangerous climate change will not increase slowly as greenhouse gases increase. Rather, the risks will rise exponentially, like an explosion, if we do not reduce emissions fast enough.
Thus the longer the green gas emission is greater than that absorbed or removed the faster the problem becomes insoluble, even with extraordinary measures.
Thus the sooner we act to bring down green gas emissions to a steady state where they are being absorbed and removed as fast as they are produced, the sooner we will stop the temperature rise and keep the world as we know it 'safe'.
See posting below for links to information and what you can do!
1 comment:
Sound summary, but underplays a few points
1. Methane is 21 times as strong as carbon dioxide (averaged over 100 years, but as it only lasts about 10 years in the atmosphere, it is probably about 100 times as strong while there).
2. Methane is already erupting from the undersea permafrost all over the Arctic ocean to the north of Russia.
3. Most carbon dioxide is absorbed by the ocean, either by plankton or just by dissolving in the water. As the oceans warm, they can hold less dissolved gas and plankton grows more slowly, so even faster growth in warming.
To put it in context, when the Greenland ice cap melts Ulverston and Barrow will be under water. The most conservative forecasts say this will take 100 years, but everything is moving much faster than those forecasts assumed (they also assume that the ice will melt from the top, not slide into the sea on a film of melt water as it is doing)
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